Where’s the Financial Fire Prevention?

March 29th, 2009


Secretary of the Treasury Geithner appeared before Congress this week. The advance scoop was that he would be proposing new regulations for the financial industry. What a great idea! You might have said, “It’s about time!” Otherwise, what will prevent another round of crises and meltdowns?

But, our hopes were dashed. Geithner simply asked for more authority to take over and bail out an even bigger number of companies. That’s not going to put a stop to the wild speculation that is tantamount to gambling by the financial industry. In the business of fire fighting, it would be far better to prevent the fire than to fight the fire. Geithner reminds me of a fire chief who wants to buy bulldozers to clean up after the buildings have burned.

Maybe Secretary Geithner has a prevention program up his sleeve. Maybe it’s too early to judge the executive branch. One can still hope for rules for higher reserve requirements, elimination of naked gambles by bankers and insurance companies, etc. On the other hand, the Congress has been around for years and years. What have they been doing? Your representatives and senators in the U.S. Congress have thousands of people working on their staffs. The Congress has no excuse whatsoever.

Click here to contact your representatives in Washington, D.C.:
Our Elected Officials. You might ask them what their excuse is.

– Byron

After The Bonus Uproar, Stay Mad!

March 22nd, 2009


This week’s hullabaloo over the AIG bonuses is an indication that the public is paying attention. However, the public may simply be going after the wrong people. In other words, chasing a red herring instead of attacking the real problem. One can only hope that the anger now turns toward the source of the real problem. The real problem people are the members of Congress. For thirty years, the Congress has gone along with the mentality of the corporate finance community. The mentality said regulations are bad. In fact, it looks as if criminal enterprise is now a part of the definition of free enterprise. Just look the other way and say, “Let the buyer beware.”

AIG, and the rest of the financial industry, sold options to their customers which weren’t covered. It’s like selling insurance and hoping that claims wouldn’t come in. Why? Because AIG and the rest didn’t have the money to pay off. And Congress looked the other way.

Albert Einstein told us, “Intellectuals solve problems; geniuses prevent them.” The good news is that Congress doesn’t have to be a genius, nor even very smart, to put back all the financial rules of the New Deal. Most of the legislation was written 75 years ago.

The “financial crisis” started last year. Have you seen one effort by Congress to put the honest controls back in the system? Have you heard of one piece of legislation? It seems like we’ve seen lots
of finger-pointing and name-calling. And speeches that never get to the heart of the matter. The solutions are so simple. What’s the problem? Is it the system itself that’s the problem?

Here’s what one wise man observed as the problem with Congress. Mark Twain boasted,
“I think I can say, and say with pride, that we have some legislatures that bring higher prices than any in the world.”

Click here to contact your representatives in Washington, D.C.:
Our Elected Officials. Tell them you want a regulatory system you can believe in.

– Byron

A Samurai Congress

March 17th, 2009


Did you hear what Senator Charles Grassley said
regarding the latest AIG bonuses? This is priceless:

“The first thing that would make me feel a little bit better towards them if they’d follow the Japanese model and come before the American people and take that deep bow and say I’m sorry, and then either do one of two things — resign, or go commit suicide.”

He may have meant that literally or just figuratively. But, Senator Grassley is on to something. That might apply to the Congress, which brought us all the deregulation. Ultimately, the House and the Senate brought about the meltdown of the financial system. It was done by undoing the old regulations and choosing not to control new practices. Warren Buffett said that the new highly complex financial instruments are time bombs and “financial weapons of mass destruction” that could harm not only their buyers and sellers, but the whole economic system. And he is certainly right. The ultimate price of a trillion dollars (and still counting) is being paid by each and every American.

Look first in the mirror, Sen. Grassley. Then, address your fellow politicians in the Senate and the House. Here’s the message that’s appropriate:

“Resign, or go commit suicide.”

Click here to contact your representatives in Washington, D.C.:
Our Elected Officials.
Send them YOUR message.

– Byron

Job Picture: Worse Than They Say

March 6th, 2009


Today the Labor Department released the results of its survey of the employment situation in the United States. The “official” unemployment rate (their words) is now 8.1%. If you earned $10 last month, you’re counted as employed. Their “official” rate is the rate you see reported in the newspapers and on TV. In one sense, it’s the rosy statistic that has been used for decades.

However, if you wanted to get a better feel for the true misery rate of America, you’d have to look at the underemployed as well as the folks who said they just didn’t bother to look for work anymore. The reference link below will show you better measures. The official rate, that 8.1% number, is called U-3. Take a look at a second statistic called U-6. That measure of misery says the unemployment rate is 14.8%. That measure is also worthy of mention in the media. It tells us that one person in seven can’t find a full-time job.

For years, my rule of thumb is to double the official rate of employment to get a sense of how many people are doing poorly in the U.S. To get the exact number for U-6, you’ll invariably have to visit the website of the Dept. of Labor. They don’t even have a name for it except “U-6.” Let’s just call it the “Comprehensive Misemployment Rate.” Just remember the next time you hear the “official” rate that it is just not the whole miserable story.

Here’s yet a third way to see what the average working person is up against. The U.S. has an increasing population. In 8 years the population went from about 281 Million to 306 Million. So just to stay even in jobs for Americans, new jobs have to be created at the same rate. In the last 8 years, Americans have been falling behind. Here’s the slow decline for working men and women:

  • Dec. 2000: 137.846 Million Working = 49% of the population.
  • Dec. 2008: 143.350 Million Working = 47% of the population.


Remember how we regularly hear about how many jobs were created in any given month? That’s nice, but it’s misleading. If the media were telling these statistics at the expense of the full story, one would call it propaganda.

When was the last time you heard that phrase “full employment?” It’s a by-gone concept. In the 1970’s, the Congress defined “Full Employment” to be reached when the “official” unemployment rate is “only” 4%. That definition puts a seal of approval on a lot of misery for Americans. Remember, when you have 4% “official” unemployment, the “Comprehensive Misemployment Rate” U-6 is around 8%.

Let’s have a wild and crazy dream. Let’s shoot for a full employment rate of about 105%. That would be a good indicator that jobs are going begging due to a booming economy in America.

Click here to contact your representatives in Washington, D.C.:
Our Elected Officials.
Ask him or her about “U-6″. Let us know whether they know or care.

– Byron


References:


“Table A-12. ,” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 6, 2009.

Alternative measures of labor underutilization
.

Fix Our Broken Medical System!

February 28th, 2009


Doctors, nurses, and hospitals are killing people. It’s not intentional murder. But, dead is dead when you’re the victim of their medical “mistakes.” This goes on year after year. How many? The Institute of Medicine estimates that the number of dead people is as many as 98,000. This is just from “mistakes.” If you killed someone due to a driving “mistake,” you’d expect to do jail time.

Is this level of misfeasance something new? Something just learned? No, this awful rate of death has been known even before the Institute of Medicine published its famous report in 1999. Did you ever hear of state or federal commission being established to investigate why so many Americans are being killed?

Maybe this death rate is related to the quality of medicine in the U.S. Try this one. In 2000, the World Health Organization found the United States ranked 37th in the world in its health care, just ahead of Cuba and Slovenia. In 2006, the U.S. was spending 16% of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product on healthcare. That’s more than any other country spends. That’s like spending $50,000 for a car and driving home a beater. And the costs have been continuing to rise . . . big-time. How did our can-do country get itself into such a dead-end trap?

Finally, those awful numbers about the cost of health care don’t even include the Americans who do NOT get health care. The accepted statistic is that 27,000 Americans have to die each year because they do not have health insurance. And, they just can’t afford basic care from their own financial resources.

End of story. What more would you need to know to get “mad as hell?” The Congress could face the problems and create the solutions. In health care, any state legislature has the authority to face the problems and create the solutions. But, they seem to always find an excuse to look the other way. You can let them know your position.

The financing scheme for universal healthcare is almost another topic. But, if that is of interest, here’s one way to do it:Universal Health Insurance.

Click here to contact your representatives in Washington, D.C.:
Our Elected Officials. Tell them you want them to fix something . . . anything. And, your state politicians could also start paying attention.

– Byron


References:


“To Err Is Human,” The Institute of Medicine, November, 1999.

To Err Is Human: Building a Safer Health System
.


“The world health report 2000,” The World Health Organization, June, 2000.

World Health Organization Assesses the World’s Health Systems
.

Fix the Nursing Crisis!

January 19th, 2009

Here is an eye-opening forecast by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation:

“The nursing shortage in the United States is intensifying: it is expected to triple over the next 13 years, leaving a shortfall of 340,000 nurses in 2020.”

For the U.S. to get itself back to “even” or “normal”, an EXTRA 34,000 nurses would have to graduate and get licensed each year. Somewhere there’s another forecast that said 1.5 Million nurses would be leaving the workforce in the next ten years and that only 1 Million new nurses would be trained. In that scenario, there is an urgent need for an EXTRA 50,000 nurses each year.

Today, the media is reporting on trillion dollar proposals for bank bailouts, fiscal stimulus, and throwing borrowed money at the American people via tax “rebates.” Wouldn’t you feel better to have a list of specific, concrete goals for worthwhile, valuable projects in front of you?

The politicians’ catchphrase is “shovel-ready.” By that, the idea is to jumpstart the “economy” by funding only projects like roads that can be started the next day (or month). “Shovel-ready” is some kind of red herring requirement. It just takes our focus off the big picture. Who says that the U.S. shouldn’t try to catch up? And catching up can also take a few years.

Back to the shortage of nurses . . . a dramatic push to save the medical system would seem to be a very popular, visible, and valuable program. The existing nursing schools report turning away qualified applicants simply due to lack of space. There are plenty of American men and women want nursing as a career. But lack of teaching staff and facilities and money is the cause of the crisis. And, the crisis is going to worsen each year.

This is a completely understandable situation. Perhaps the whole world has heard of the baby boom . . . except the U.S. Congress. The baby boom has been common knowledge for years so the nursing shortage is no surprise. First, the baby boomers expanded the number of nurses. Second, the baby boomer generation is a big generation, and they’re retiring. Third, these retired boomers themselves will create their own huge demand for medical care.

This week, Barack Obama is sworn in as president. In 1960, John Kennedy was sworn in as president. Both are known for their eloquence. John Kennedy stated his goal to put an American on the moon within ten years. I’d like to hear Barack Obama set a goal to train an extra (that’s extra) 340,000 nurses within ten years.

Click here to contact your representatives in Washington, D.C.:
Our Elected Officials. Tell them you want a stimulus package you can believe in.

–- Byron

References:


Charting Nursing’s Future, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, April, 2008.
The Age Quake.

The Bailout Congress

January 12th, 2009


In November, Bill Maher had a great line regarding the “financial fiasco”:

“New Rule: Hank Paulson must drop the $700 billion in bailout money from a plane and let everyone scramble for it on the ground. Sure, it’ll be chaos, but at least this way we have a chance of getting our money back.”

Yes, it’s a funny line. But, the satire does not need to stop with the
Paulson bailout.

Try this one. Since the 1970’s, every candidate for president, for the
House, and for the Senate has promised to deliver “energy independence”. That is, to reduce American dependence on foreign oil.

One part of the program was to establish some standard for gas mileage for a car manufacturer to meet. It was a standard for their “fleet” so the
company could still offer a range of cars. It sounds like a way to reduce
consumption of gas. However, the Congress then created an exemption for pick-ups. Later we find that the definition included the most gas-guzzling SUVs. Yes, a SUV is a “pick-up,” said the Congress.

And, then the Congress outdid themselves using the tax code. They gave an incentive for businesses and self-employed people to purchase gas-guzzlers. Thus, folks could take a 100% deduction of the costs immediately. For example, anyone purchasing a $75,000 SUV wrote off $75,000. In the highest tax bracket, that meant the federal government gave the owner $25,000 plus. And, the government borrowed the money from China to fund the giveaway for Americans to buy more gas-guzzlers.

Next, how about that foreign oil? Well, the Congress approves of going to war in Iraq to protect the foreign oil supply. World’s only superpower, you know. So, the federal government borrows more money from China to pay for that war. (Are we seeing a pattern here?)

And, guess what? The price of gas soared above $4 per gallon. Now few people want to buy such vehicles. Thus, the auto companies are losing money because they staked their success on gas-guzzling big-ticket vehicles. So what happens now? Well, the Congress says it has to bail out the auto companies. And, of course, to do that they have to borrow more money from China.

Maybe Bill Maher is actually on to something. Maybe throwing money from airplanes, or maybe from skyscrapers, should be discussed in Congress. All things considered, it might have cost America less.

In 1928, on his radio program, Will Rogers observed: “No nation in the history of the world was ever sitting so pretty. If we want anything, all we have to do is go and buy it on credit. So that leaves us without any economic problems whatever, except some day to have to pay for them,” he told America. “But we are certainly not thinking about that this early.” One year later, the stock market crashed big-time. Oh, yes, it rose to new records before finally settling to a new low in 1932. Stocks had lost 90% of their value.

Click here to contact your representatives in Washington, D.C.:

Our Elected Officials
. Tell them you want a bailout you can believe in.

– Byron


References:


“Real Time with Bill Maher,” HBO, November 14, 2008.
New Rules.

Fix America First!

January 9th, 2009


There are about 600,000 bridges in the United States. The most recent
inventory by the federal government states that 25% of them are either
structurally deficient or functionally obsolete. That’s over 150,000 bridges which need major repairs or which need total replacement. A bridge lasts about 50 years.

There are over 4 millon miles of highways in the U.S. Note that the
interstate system has only 46,000 miles, a fraction of the total land
transportation “system.” According to the American Society of Civil
Engineers, over two-thirds of roads are in poor or mediocre condition (TRIP 2005), “resulting in $54 billion per year wasted on repairs and operating costs.” That’s waste! That’s $54 BILLION that’s thrown away due to the bad structural condition of the roads. It’s as if fixing the problem would cost just about nothing as the “waste” would stop.

Let’s skip all of the mind-numbing statistics. The above two paragraphs
tell us that the U.S. is in bad shape when it comes to bridges and
highways. It’s accepted as reasonable that state and federal governments collect a user fee on each gallon of fuel to maintain the system. However, that fixed charge per gallon has not been increased to keep up with the rising costs over the years. So, the fees buy less each year, and the bridges and highways deteriorate, and you, whether commuter or long-haul truck driver, suffer. Plus, in this era of demand for “fiscal stimulus,” bridges and highways are a great investment. It almost looks like we’d get our money back by fixing the problems as quickly as possible.

In a letter to Speaker Pelosi, the American Society of Civil Engineers
said: “Among those needs are over $50 billion a year in additional surface transportation funds, which would go toward correcting the nearly $100 billion in lost productivity every year due to traffic congestion. As those automobiles sit in traffic, the condition and safety of our nation’s bridges continues to worsen, costing an estimated $140 billion to repair all bridge deficiencies.”

How much planning does it take to start re-surfacing? It’s “shovel-ready” today! Once started, why stop? In the Sun Belt, the work can continue year-round. Tougher projects like bridges are also ready to go, but just need funding. Meantime, the new engineering projects can be put to blueprints. And, the full program will be a dynamic growth engine for at least 5 years.

A 50% increase in the per gallon user fees would put us on the road to
dramatic improvements. The total catch-up will take several years. However, the extra work and jobs will start immediately. That increase would be about ten cents per gallon. The alternative seems to be that the U.S. falls further into the hole . . . a national pothole.

This “infrastructure” program fits nicely into the “fiscal stimulus” being
put together today. Construction is not just a bunch of folks running
paving equipment. It means equipment gets manufactured, engineers are busy, and the office staffs and computers are whirring. First, it is an
investment where Americans get the benefits. Second, it requires no
borrowing of money. Third, all the jobs go to Americans.

Fixing America first is a great way to go.

Click here to contact your representatives in Washington, D.C.:
Our Elected Officials. They understand shovels.

– Byron


References:


Bridge Inventory: Total and Deficient (See page 19).


Highway Mileage by State ( See page 18 ).

Testimony of The American Society of Civil Engineers
( See page 8 )
.


American Society of Civil Engineers’ Letter to Speaker Pelosi.

Job Creation Magic

December 24th, 2008

The government class doesn’t grasp the reality of the typical, middle-class American. President-Elect Barack Obama states that his goal is to create 2.5 million jobs. With 10 million men and women in the official unemployment line, and millions more underemployed, a couple of million new jobs doesn’t cut it. If this is the serious economic crisis that the government class, the economists, and commentators accept almost unanimously, why should one adopt a goal that at best leaves us in a crisis? So let’s shoot for getting 10 million American men and women back to work. Here’s how.

First, the federal government has an obligation to remove the illegal immigrants from this country. There are at least 10 to 12 million illegals here. Let’s take a guess that at least 5 million have jobs that could
and would be done by Americans. Voila! Five million jobs.

ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) removed a record 349,000 illegal immigrants in 2008, a 21 percent increase over last year and a 77 percent jump since 2005 according to the San Jose Mercury News. That is an improvement. It sounds good. However, the influx of illegals is about 1,000 per day. So ICE is barely keeping even. There still remain over 10 million aliens who are subject to deportation.

Second, if you add in the LEGAL immigrants, there are over 38 million foreign-born people in the U.S. today. The rate of influx has been, and remains, a shock to the American system. There is an alphabet soup of
visas, e.g. H1-B, L-1, green card, etc., by which foreigners are allowed into the country to work legally. That can be stopped immediately by executive order. And, then there is the annual allocation of over 600,000 regular and permanent immigrants. (Annual means EVERY YEAR!) That could be stopped until every American (citizen and legal resident) has a job. Why continue to add to the employment problem in this country? A more detailed discussion of the immigration issue is found in “Illegal Immigration Is Bad For Americans”

Third, how many jobs have been directly and legally outsourced to foreign countries? Think of the call centers in India as just one example. One commentator put it this way, “If the data can travel down the internet, the job can be done just about anywhere in the world.” These are not manufacturing jobs. The global companies simply want to make an extra buck. All these jobs can be returned to the United States of America. The jobs belong to American men and women who deserve them.

Fourth, the U.S. has an enormous foreign trade deficit. It alone could bankrupt this country. The response of the Congress is simply to ignore the problem. To stop the hemorrhaging, the U.S. should and can take action. Let’s start with a 10% tariff on all imported goods and services and raise it until the U.S. at least has an even balance of trade. I can hear your objection that the the U.S. must respect the World Trade Organization rules which prohibit that. That’s not true. The WTO treaty says that no country should single out particular industries. As long as the tariff is applied to everything, each country is entitled to apply import taxes. Until Americans take this most basic step, we’ll continue to become weaker and weaker. Let’s call it a serious matter of national security.

Living in the U.S., do you ever feel that you’re in an asylum that’s being run by the inmates? Remember the oft-quoted definition of insanity?
It is “making the same mistake over and over again and expecting a different result.” The metaphor you can remember is: “When I find myself in an ever-deepening hole, the first thing I should do is throw down the shovel and stop digging.”


References:


“Illegal Immigration Is Bad For Americans”

“Know Nothing Party”

San Jose Mercury News, November 29, 2008
Border crossings shift back to California routes.

Madoff Madness

December 19th, 2008

What hasn’t been said about the Madoff firm running a $50 Billion Ponzi
Scheme? There is no statement nor discussion of how to keep it from
happening again. To do that, put the finger on the underlying problem.
Starting question: how did the Madoff scam continue for years and years? After all, Madoff operated in a super-regulated, super-overseen
environment. Look at the layers and watchers policing those companies.

First, any investment company of any size must have an outside auditor.
Second, the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD) “oversees” its members; they too can examine the books and business practices. Third, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is the federal regulatory body. Fourth, the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) insures investment accounts against theft and fraud for the same amount which the FDIC insures bank accounts. Last, ultimately, the Congress is the originator of the laws authorizing the cascade of regulations to protect all parties.

The entire “system” failed time and again at every step. For the securities industry, the policing of Madoff is rather like the handling of Hurricane Katrina. Just picture President Bush (or Clinton) saying to the head of the SEC, “Brownie, you’re doing a hell of a job!” That sarcasm and contempt can be directed to all levels, as “Congress people, you do a great job for people like Bernard Madoff!”

At the ground level of the system, there is the run-of-the mill policing of a company that should catch shenanigans. That is done by an outside independent and competent accounting firm. They match a random sample of accounts and transactions. They “follow the money.” But, the firm auditing the Madoff firm could not have missed every irregular exception all the time, could they? Wouldn’t you think something would have shown up by the time the first billion went unaccounted for? Well, the audit function failed. (This is not rocket science, is it?) The auditing firm may simply be neither independent nor competent. One reasonable solution would be to require by law that a new audit firm be selected every year or two. And, why not have the SEC give Madoff a choice of 3 randomly selected audit firms?

At the next level, the SEC and NASD are also police. The job can be as
simple as policing the auditors. The first step would be to inspect the
audit report in the comfort of their offices. A second step would be to
receive complaints about the Madoff firm. The SEC says they’ve been
receiving allegations for over ten years, but did nothing. Even if there
had been perfect audit reports and no allegations, a third step would be
expected, just a reality check to police the police. That third step by the SEC would be to run an annual mini-audit of their own. But, wait, the SEC head says the SEC hasn’t looked at the Madoff firm for at least ten years. What more do we need to know? Eureka! Let’s stop here. Until this system defect is solved, there will be more Madoff scandals, more Ponzi schemes. And, even outright theft can go undetected most of the time for years and years at a time.

This is definitely not rocket science. Has anyone else come up with this as a solution? If you’ve seen it, please take a moment to post it as a
comment. And if you haven’t seen it, please comment on this analyis. The feedback makes it all worthwhile. Today, the words of Lily Tomlin come to mind: “No matter how cynical you get, it’s almost impossible to keep up.”