Hundred Power

Here’s a quotable quote popularized by Mark Twain. In fact, Benjamin Disraeli was the original author.

     ”There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

In addition, we are easily confused when we can’t bring different statistics together in one place or find that their darned footnotes still don’t explain what’s included. And, data is filtered through talking heads and reporters who often don’t know what any of it really means. In other words, the true picture is lost. Statistics are never turned into information. We’re simply misinformed.

Take the job situation. What follows is a suggestion of why it is worse than reported.

First, what’s the impact of all those new college grads? There are millions who are thrown into the labor market each year. According to the Digest of Education Statistics, the following were degrees conferred within the United States for the 2008-2009 academic year. This is the breakdown by degree type.

   
• Associate degree  -     714,000
     
• Bachelor degree   -  1,585,000
     
• Master’s degree    -    647,000
     
• First Professional  -     91,000
     
• Doctorate             -      55,800

That’s a total of over 3 Million college graduates. Of course, that does not tell us how many were attending night school and already working or not. The National Association of Colleges and Employers said job offers for 2009 college graduates ran 22 percent behind 2008’s. So, right out of the box, it seems that their unemployment level is over 20%.

Then, there are approximately 3 Million new graduates from high school. Some percentage are headed to academic and vocational colleges and not seeking long-term employment. However, most high school grads are trying to join the workforce right away. That’s a grim prospect. From April, 2009 to June, 2009, the unemployment rate for that age range (16-19) rose from 23.6% to 27.8%.

The National Employment Law Project says, “Today, only 37 percent of unemployed workers collect unemployment benefits, which is especially low compared to prior recessions.” We NEVER hear this reported. So many people work as ‘Independent Contractors’ and are not even considered employees. All too often, it’s a phony arrangement demanded by unethical employers. Also, part-time employees are not covered, and so forth. Unemployment insurance is a moth-eaten system.

Economist Nouriel Roubini said, “. . . consider that the total value of labor income is the product of jobs, hours and average hourly wages–and that all three elements are falling right now.” The trend is down. Even working people are going through reductions in weekly hours worked and hourly wages. The forecast for the next year and a half is that more working people will be joining the ranks of the unemployed.

Here’s one of the ways in which statistics are turned into ‘damned lies.’ Here’s the number of NEW claims for unemployment after the ‘adjustment’ by the Bureau of Labor Statistics: “In the week ending July 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 522,000, a decrease of 47,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 569,000.” The ‘real, unadjusted’ number is in the OPPOSITE direction. BLS also said, “. . . actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 667,534 in the week ending July 11, an increase of 86,389 from the previous week.” So 133,000 unemployed people got adjusted under the rug and out of existence. The trend is exactly the opposite of what was reported by our dear American media.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics could do a far better job of research. And, the media reporting is mostly shallow, if not mindless. Again, Mark Twain says it so well:

    ”If you do not read the paper, you are uninformed.
      If you do read the paper, you are misinformed.”

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– Byron