Archive for September, 2008

Re-write the PAULSON BAILOUT PLAN

Monday, September 29th, 2008

This bailout policy is simply wrong as Paulson proposed
it. In a rush to judgment, the Congress is trying to
tweak it. It’s pretty well too late to stop it even if
the elected officials were reading this. However, there
may be some value in writing this as an exercise. Your
comments would also be valuable.

The Big Picture:

90% of mortgages are currently being paid on time and in full.

Only 3% of mortgages are in foreclosure. Yes, that is high.
The bailout dollars requested are about $5,000 for each
person in the American workforce; the bailout has to be
paid for by borrowed money. If there absolutely must
be emergency action to “save the financial system,” then
there are safer, less costly alternatives. Here they are.

Provide NEW capital to fund NEW quality mortgages:
This allows lenders to do business as usual.
Rule: The borrower must have twenty percent down.
Rule: The lender has to hold the mortgage.
Rule: The borrower may not take out a second mortgage.
Rule: The borrower may not use built-up equity for
a second mortgage nor a line of credit.
Rule: The mortgage must have a fixed rate of interest.

Provide NEW capital to buy OLD mortgages:
Rule: The mortgage is current.
Rule: The mortgage was issued 5 or more years ago.

Establish a “Foreclosure Holiday”:
Rule: The homeowner in foreclosure gets a 3-month grace period.

A “Foreclosure Holiday” works like the Roosevelt “Bank Holiday”
in the Great Depression,  The purpose was to stop a
“run” on banks.  Less well-known was the “Insurance
Holiday.” No one could cash in an insurance policy
for six months. Thus, the idea of a “Foreclosure Holiday”
is an available option.

Mortgage Administration:
Rule: When a mortgage is issued, establish
that only one company may handle the
payments for the life of the loan.
That could be the lender issuing the loan
or a licensed company agreed upon by both parties.

Explain Federal Deposit Insurance:

Conduct a national media campaign to educate the
public. The message should be:
1) Your bank deposits, in an FDIC bank, are insured
up to $100,000.
2) Put any money over that amount in a different bank.
3) The interest on your $100,000 CD is NOT insured.
The insured amount is $100,000, and not a penny more.

It’s hard to believe how many people lose money in
banks like IndyMac because their deposits exceed $100,000.
Second, there is turmoil as many small depositors withdraw
their money even though it is wholly insured by the
full faith and credit of the U.S. government.

Fatten up the FDIC reserves:

The banks pay a premium for federal deposit insurance.
Those FDIC reserves have been depleted. It’s time to
raise the premiums. Meantime, one bailout action could
be for the Congress to pump up the FDIC assets.
All the money will be repaid with the higher premiums.

Let the markets invest NEW capital:

One of the complaints is that there is not enough
money available. There are only two sources of money.
DEBT and EQUITY. Any bank or other company needing to borrow
money would be expected to offer a higher interest rate.
Second, new equity capital can be raised by selling stock.
The market will work when the price is right.

EXAMPLE #1: Goldman Sachs made a deal with Warren Buffett.
The company agreed to pay a 10% dividend on Buffett’s
$5 Billion of preferred stock. Buffett’s investment
is completely NEW money. Why did it happen? That
10% rate of return made it happen. Then, Goldman raised
another $5 billion in a separate stock offering.

EXAMPLE #2: JPMorgan Chase bought Bear, Stearns
a few months ago. This week they bought Washington
Mutual. The investor with the money took over.
Why? The price looked right.

Create a “National Mortgage Exchange”:

Let the financial institutions sell their “toxic
mortgages.” They are not worthless. If the value
of a foreclosed house is down, that’s just a reality.
The house itself is not worthless. The holder of
the mortgage owns the property, right? If the price
is right, there will be a buyer who will pay the
owner real money. Thus, the selling financial company
gets its money and can return to business as usual.
The government can establish some rules and promote
such a market, or even create an exchange, like
a stock or commodity exchange.

FINAL SOLUTION: Let the voters decide.

The American people and their elected representatives
are being asked to take monumental actions overnight.
This crisis did not arise overnight. What is wrong
with a “system” that gets this out of whack?
Where have our national elected officials been?
Do you think they deserve to be re-elected?

This writer thinks it’s time for sweeping changes.

/rb/

Paulson’s Pig in a Poke

Wednesday, September 24th, 2008

Treasury Secretary Paulson proposes that you and I pony up a few hundred BILLION dollars . . . maybe even a TRILLION dollars to achieve some unexplained goal with unexplained consequences.  So I’m not sure that Paulson even has a pig in his poke, with or without lipstick on it.

Oh, he says it’s to save our financial system. What does that mean specifically? Well, he also says he wants to buy up bad mortgage paper so lenders can free up capital to make more loans.  Krugman calls it “Cash for Trash.” Next, Paulson wants this authority and money in a few days. This credit crisis has been developing for years. Where were our leaders for the past few years? What were they doing? Let’s take a month or so to see what’s really in Paulson’s Poke. Let’s put different and better and cheaper ideas up for discussion.

Paulson led the bond-trading firm of Goldman Sachs. Debt is his specialty, i.e. his “hammer.” Remember, “When the only tool you have is a hammer, everything begins to look like a nail.”

Here are the best columns I read.

Related Links:

)    Paulson Bailout Plan a Historic Swindle
By William Greider

September 19, 2008
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20081006/greider

)    Fair Game — Your Money at Work, Fixing Others’ Mistakes
By GRETCHEN MORGENSON

September 20, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/business/21gret.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=morgenson&st=cse&oref=slogin

)    John McCain: Crisis Enabler
By Mark Sumner

September 21, 2008
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20081006/sumner/1