Here’s a quotable quote popularized by Mark Twain. In fact, Benjamin Disraeli was the original author.

     ”There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

In addition, we are easily confused when we can’t bring different statistics together in one place or find that their darned footnotes still don’t explain what’s included. And, data is filtered through talking heads and reporters who often don’t know what any of it really means. In other words, the true picture is lost. Statistics are never turned into information. We’re simply misinformed.

Take the job situation. What follows is a suggestion of why it is worse than reported.

First, what’s the impact of all those new college grads? There are millions who are thrown into the labor market each year. According to the Digest of Education Statistics, the following were degrees conferred within the United States for the 2008-2009 academic year. This is the breakdown by degree type.

   
• Associate degree  -     714,000
     
• Bachelor degree   -  1,585,000
     
• Master’s degree    -    647,000
     
• First Professional  -     91,000
     
• Doctorate             -      55,800

That’s a total of over 3 Million college graduates. Of course, that does not tell us how many were attending night school and already working or not. The National Association of Colleges and Employers said job offers for 2009 college graduates ran 22 percent behind 2008’s. So, right out of the box, it seems that their unemployment level is over 20%.

Then, there are approximately 3 Million new graduates from high school. Some percentage are headed to academic and vocational colleges and not seeking long-term employment. However, most high school grads are trying to join the workforce right away. That’s a grim prospect. From April, 2009 to June, 2009, the unemployment rate for that age range (16-19) rose from 23.6% to 27.8%.

The National Employment Law Project says, “Today, only 37 percent of unemployed workers collect unemployment benefits, which is especially low compared to prior recessions.” We NEVER hear this reported. So many people work as ‘Independent Contractors’ and are not even considered employees. All too often, it’s a phony arrangement demanded by unethical employers. Also, part-time employees are not covered, and so forth. Unemployment insurance is a moth-eaten system.

Economist Nouriel Roubini said, “. . . consider that the total value of labor income is the product of jobs, hours and average hourly wages–and that all three elements are falling right now.” The trend is down. Even working people are going through reductions in weekly hours worked and hourly wages. The forecast for the next year and a half is that more working people will be joining the ranks of the unemployed.

Here’s one of the ways in which statistics are turned into ‘damned lies.’ Here’s the number of NEW claims for unemployment after the ‘adjustment’ by the Bureau of Labor Statistics: “In the week ending July 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 522,000, a decrease of 47,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 569,000.” The ‘real, unadjusted’ number is in the OPPOSITE direction. BLS also said, “. . . actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 667,534 in the week ending July 11, an increase of 86,389 from the previous week.” So 133,000 unemployed people got adjusted under the rug and out of existence. The trend is exactly the opposite of what was reported by our dear American media.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics could do a far better job of research. And, the media reporting is mostly shallow, if not mindless. Again, Mark Twain says it so well:

    ”If you do not read the paper, you are uninformed.
      If you do read the paper, you are misinformed.”

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Click here to contact your representatives in Washington, D.C.:
Our Elected Officials.Ask them what their labor policy is and why.

– Byron

Do you hear this from time to time? ‘The economy is stronger than expected,’ or ‘the economic indicators are better than expected.’ You can ask, “Whose economy are we talking about?” “Whose expectations are those?” Here are a few facts that would seem to anchor us in reality.

Bankruptcy Filings: 5,300 per day from JAN-MARCH, 2009. For the entire year of 2009, that would add up to over 1,300,000 bankruptcies. In 2006, the rate was about 2,000 per day. The rate had been rising steadily since then.

Official Unemployment Rate: 8.9%. It’s rising steadily. The Dept. of Labor says, “The number of unemployed persons increased by 563,000 to 13.7 million in April.” Economist Mark Zandi suggests it will level off at 10% a year from now. Obama advisers are forecasting the unemployment level will not decline until the end of 2010, i.e. NEXT year. That’s a year and a half from now.

Official Underemployment Rate: 15.8%. This is called U-6, the estimate of the Bureau of Labor
Statistics. It’s more realistic than the official rate reported.

Home Prices: “Four years of gains in home prices wiped out.” That’s the national estimate using the S&P Case-Shiller Index for the top 20 cities.

Home Foreclosures: 342,000 households received at least one foreclosure-related notice in April. That’s a 32-percent increase compared with April of last year.

Stock Market Crash: Last November, Market Watch said the S&P 500 Index was at its lowest level in more than a decade and had lost almost half of its value in a year. Today, the index is 883, down further from last November when it was 929. The market watch reporter said, “Call it the Great Give-Back.”

NEW Unemployed People: 637,000 workers lost their jobs and filed a first-time claim for unemployment money in the week ending May 9. This is what’s going on every week. Never mind the academic talk. It has the feel of a humanitarian disaster . . . each and every week.

President Herbert Hoover, a great believer in statistics, said that the 1930 census would “show the first real determination of unemployment” and would prove his contention that “the worst effects of the crash . . . have passed.”

Click here to contact your representatives in Washington, D.C.:
Our Elected Officials. Tell them you’re looking for their replacement.

– Byron

References:

New York Times, May 10, 2009.
The Jobless Rate, Slow to Improve, Tests Obama.

Market Watch, May 16, 2009.
Four years of gains in home prices wiped out.

ABC News, May 13, 2009.
RealtyTrac: April Foreclosures Rise 32 Percent.

Market Watch, Nov 21, 2008.
Are stocks cheap? It depends on earnings..